Resolves YES if customers are able to purchase the new Tesla car codenamed "Redwood" when and if it becomes available at an MSRP of 25,000 USD or less.
Resolves NO otherwise, including if Tesla ceases to exist or the "Redwood" project is officially cancelled.
Musk had first promised to build a $25,000 car in 2020, a plan he later shelved and then revived. Tesla's cheapest offering, the Model 3 sedan, currently has a starting price of $38,990 in the United States.
[...]
Cybertruck production, for instance, has been delayed and slow to accelerate and its $60,990 U.S. starting price is 50% higher than Musk touted in 2019.Related market:
/SIMOROBO/will-the-tesla-redwood-be-available
Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding cancellation of Redwood project:
The Reuters article about cancellation does not count as officially cancelled (Musk disputed it without identifying specific inaccuracies)
Musk's Q3 2024 earnings call statement that a "regular 25K model is pointless" does not constitute official cancellation of project Redwood
If a cheap regular Tesla car comes out, the market may still resolve YES
Creator is considering setting a reasonable expiry date for the project but has not yet determined one
1,000@SIMOROBO
Redwood is cancelled. Reuters detailed meetings and communications with several sources.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-scraps-low-cost-car-plans-amid-fierce-chinese-ev-competition-2024-04-05/
Q3 2024 Earnings call, Musk said
So, anyway, basically, I think having a regular 25K model is pointless. It would be silly. Like it would be completely at odds with what we believe. ...
And if you try to make a car that is essentially a hybrid, manual, automatic car, it's not going to be as good as a dedicated autonomous car. So, yes, Cybercab is just not going to have steering wheels and pedals.What we designed is optimized for autonomy. It will cost on the order of -- cost roughly 25K, so it is a 25K car. And you can -- you will be able to buy one exclusively if you want. So, it just won't have steering wheels and pedals.
You don't need it.
Since then it has all been 'we are all in on autonomy', meaning cybercab only no separate redwood project car.
Cybercab production start (elon time?) April 2026 but slow ramp up to start. Not sure when they will start selling Cybercab to customers and I doubt it will then be at $25k or less. I would suggest this is not the cancelled redwood project, but want to check whether you will decide to count it?
@ChristopherRandles Thanks for bring that up. I do hold a position so I will turn to mods if there is clear disagreement.
The Reuters article you shared definitely does not count as officially cancelled.
> Tesla did not respond to requests for comment. After the story was published, Musk posted on his social media site X that "Reuters is lying (again)." He did not identify any specific inaccuracies.
The earnings call quote has more value, but he's still saying it would not make sense to make one, but not actually saying he's cancelling project Redwood.
There are still rumors pushing the idea that a Cybercab with a steering wheel, or Model 2, or Model Q, will happen this year. You can look up "tesla model 2" and still find rumors and clickbait posted in the past month that predict exactly that.
If a cheap regular car by Tesla comes out this year, I would feel bad if I had already resolved this market. I might have to decide on a reasonable expiry date but not sure how to come up with one that's fair for everyone.
That is fine, happy with that.
FWIW from Q4 2025 earnings call 28 Jan 2026:
"But the CyberCab, which is a specific model that we're making, does not have a steering wheel or pedals. So this is clearly, there's no fallback mechanism here. It's like this car either drives itself or it does not drive."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
possibly? another relevant bit
"But if you start going beyond three years, and we look at the scaling plans, and how many fabs are getting built, especially if you factor in geopolitical uncertainty, there's always risk that maybe those chips don't arrive that people were expecting to arrive. That's why I think we need to have more fab capacity in the US. Just in case. Chips don't stop arriving for any reason. This is really existential for Tesla, Inc. because Optimus is completely useless without an AI chip. It's not like at least the cars we can put steering wheels and pedals in. Or retrofit them if need be."
Not sure if "retrofit" points towards it being something more convoluted than an optional extra that is easily added later.
Personally I think Musk has indicated there is only robotaxi model which they will sell to customers but no separate version in the short term in a few different ways like 'we are all in on autonomy' but yes there is speculation of steering wheel and pedals. Lots of meetings emphasising write up what you have learnt, as detailed by Reuters article, could well indicate shelving plans rather than cancelling them, and shelved plans can be revived.
If in a few years there is a new cheap car which is not much if at all based on cybercab chassis and there are no indications that it is revived Redwood project that presumably cannot resolve yes?
How long to wait? Hmm difficult, maybe market becomes a bet no unless you expect significant deflation. Waiting for cybercab to be replaced or have a significant redesign might be longer than traders are happy to wait for.