Resolves YES if Tesla (or Elon Musk on behalf of Tesla) formally announces a new mass-market EV widely referred to as the “Model 2,” “$25k Tesla,” or comparable sub-$30,000 vehicle before July 1, 2026, via any of the following official channels:
Tesla Investor Day or product event
Tesla website
Earnings call
Press release
Elon Musk announcement clearly intended as a Tesla product reveal
Resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.
Ambiguities:
Rumors, leaks, or offhand social media comments do not count.
Cybertruck trims or updated Model 3/Y variants do not count.
Must be a new model line and clearly positioned as a lower-cost Tesla EV.
Update 2026-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price requirement clarification:
The vehicle's price must be known and confirmed to be sub-$30k before July 1, 2026
The announcement of the vehicle without price information is not sufficient for YES resolution
Price revelation after the deadline does not count
Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A price-indicative statement (e.g., 'if we could sell it, it would cost $29,900') does not count as a confirmed price and would resolve NO. The announcement must be for a vehicle intended to be released, with a confirmed sub-$30k price before July 1, 2026.
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@Cogsdoc
If cybercab is announced/revealed/available to pre-order before July 2026 but with delivery date for exclusive ownership July 2026 or later (potentially much later) or at some future unknown date,
will this count?
or does it have to be a different model to cybercab to be a "Model 2"
or have to have a steering wheel
or some other additional requirement(s)?
Does the price have to be known to be sub 30k before July 2026 or is that being revealed later ok so that if vehicle but not price is announced then resolution is delayed?
@ChristopherRandles the name is not the key feature. What will matter is that it is a sub 30k vehicle. Price must be e known before July as that is the key feature.
@Cogsdoc
If Musk said, say at roadster reveal before July 1 2026 that also shows a cybercab, something like:
Regulations mean we cannot sell this [steering wheel less vehicle] yet but if we were able to sell it, it would have a price tag of $29,900.
To me, that would be price indicative not a "price known" situation. So while I think this circumstance should resolve no, I want to check that is the case to ensure I understand the rules of this market.
@ChristopherRandles you are correct that would resolve as no. The intent of the question is an announcement about a to be released vehicle.