MANIFOLD
Will Tesla announce the “Model 2” (sub-$30k EV) before July 1, 2026?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ773
Jun 30
4%
chance

Resolves YES if Tesla (or Elon Musk on behalf of Tesla) formally announces a new mass-market EV widely referred to as the “Model 2,” “$25k Tesla,” or comparable sub-$30,000 vehicle before July 1, 2026, via any of the following official channels:

  • Tesla Investor Day or product event

  • Tesla website

  • Earnings call

  • Press release

  • Elon Musk announcement clearly intended as a Tesla product reveal

Resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

Ambiguities:

  • Rumors, leaks, or offhand social media comments do not count.

  • Cybertruck trims or updated Model 3/Y variants do not count.

  • Must be a new model line and clearly positioned as a lower-cost Tesla EV.

  • Update 2026-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price requirement clarification:

    • The vehicle's price must be known and confirmed to be sub-$30k before July 1, 2026

    • The announcement of the vehicle without price information is not sufficient for YES resolution

    • Price revelation after the deadline does not count

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@Cogsdoc
If cybercab is announced/revealed/available to pre-order before July 2026 but with delivery date for exclusive ownership July 2026 or later (potentially much later) or at some future unknown date,

will this count?
or does it have to be a different model to cybercab to be a "Model 2"
or have to have a steering wheel
or some other additional requirement(s)?

Does the price have to be known to be sub 30k before July 2026 or is that being revealed later ok so that if vehicle but not price is announced then resolution is delayed?

@ChristopherRandles the name is not the key feature. What will matter is that it is a sub 30k vehicle. Price must be e known before July as that is the key feature.

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