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Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
6
Ṁ1kṀ641
2027
85%
chance

Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows for the free movement of goods, services, and people between Iceland and the European Union (EU). However, Iceland is not a member of the EU itself.

Here are some key points about Iceland's relationship with the EU:

* Iceland is part of the Schengen Area, allowing for passport-free travel between Iceland and other Schengen countries.

* Iceland is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which allows for the free movement of goods with EU member states.

* Iceland has a bilateral agreement with the EU, the European Economic Area Agreement (EEA Agreement), which grants Iceland access to the EU's single market.

* Iceland has also signed the Schengen Agreement, which allows for the free movement of people between Iceland and other Schengen countries.

Results will be judged based off of development in the EU's official website: https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries_en#header_countries_list

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There is almost zero chance of NO here, as though there will be a referendum soon (likely this year), the referendum is not actually about joining the EU, but on continuing discussions which started in 2009 and were discontinued in 2012.

There would likely be a second referendum after all terms have come to light about actually joining the EU, and there is just no way that you could cram referendum, talks and second referendum into 2026.

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