Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump publicly states that Iceland should be a part of the USA before January 1, 2029. This includes statements made in speeches, press conferences, social media posts, interviews, or official communications. The statement must explicitly indicate that Iceland should become part of the United States (e.g., "Iceland should be a U.S. state," "we should acquire Iceland," or similar language).

Background

Trump's nominee for ambassador to Iceland joked with lawmakers that Iceland will become the 52nd U.S. state, signaling the administration's broader interest in Arctic territories. Iceland is situated along the GIUK Gap, a strategic chokepoint for surveillance in the Arctic region whose name references the first letters of Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. In 1868, following the purchase of Alaska, Secretary of State William Seward was reportedly prepared to offer $5.5m in gold to acquire Greenland and Iceland. Trump has already made extensive public statements about acquiring Greenland, including threatening "very high" tariffs against Denmark if it resisted attempts to make Greenland a U.S. territory.

Considerations

While Trump has focused heavily on Greenland acquisition, Iceland has not been the primary target of his recent rhetoric. However, Iceland's strategic Arctic location and historical precedent (both territories were considered together in 1868) make it plausible Trump could extend his territorial ambitions to include Iceland.

• Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump says "Iceland" but obviously means "Greenland," it will still count for resolution as long as he says it should be a part of the US.