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MANIFOLD
What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
38
Ṁ2.8kṀ11k
2029
98.5%
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
91%
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
88%
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
87%
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
64%
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in a 2026 midterm election
34%
Democrats win at least 9 house seats from Washington State
13%
2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor
5%
GOP and MAGA attempts to overturn 2026 midterm election
4%
Another Jan 6-style capitol attack
4%
2026 midterm election not free and fair
3%
Democratic house victory gets stolen and tilted to GOP ruling favor
Resolved
YES
An incumbent senator loses general election
Resolved
YES
Trump is incumbent president
Resolved
YES
An Incumbent governor loses general election
Resolved
YES
Democrats win both chamber of congress
Resolved
YES
Democrats win back the house majority
Resolved
YES
Abdul El Sayed wins Michigan senate seat
Resolved
YES
Blue wave in 2026 midterms election

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES or NO (or N/A if the outcome is completely unverifiable or a precondition is unmet) based on official election results, leadership votes, and political outcomes of the 2026 US midterm elections and subsequent congressional organization.

Feel free to add your own markets. I suggest to add answers that have no markets yet.

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I have some issue resolving the ambiguous markets like "GOP attempts to overturn" and "not free and fair"

What do you think the resolution criteria should be?

I have resolved most markets, some are left and are waiting:

should be resolved soon:

  1. democrats win generic ballot by >= 7

for the rest, like the jan6 style riot etc, I will probably wait until the house speaker is elected and house/senate members are sworn in.

sold Ṁ0 NO

Sorry if I resolve quite late, I have uni classes today

@DudleyDOODOO How is this defined?

@DudleyDOODOO same with the "red wave" equivalent

@anglospherepoliticsguy and how is that defined?

@anglospherepoliticsguy Sorry I'm dumb, I thought the reply is someone else answering "the definition is the same with red wave" 💀

I'm dumb because too excited for the blue tsunami 🌊

@anglospherepoliticsguy But it seems the result is too lopsided to even worry about the definitions ;)

bought Ṁ10 NO

@RaymondChristopherTanto this is hilarious - yes - it was so overwhelming i think it doesn't need questioning

@Qubits TSUNAMI BABYYY 🌊🌊🌊

bought Ṁ80 NO