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MANIFOLD
Will Labour form a 2 term government?
24
Ṁ1kṀ5.4k
2029
29%
chance

Labour are very likely to win the July 2024 general election. But will they win the one after that?

Resolves YES if both (1) after the July 2024 there is a Labour government, and (2) the same is true of the general election after that.

Notes:

(a) if there is a minority government, it is the party of the PM that counts

(b) if there are multiple PMs in a parliament, it is the first one who counts, with the exception that it is a hung parliament and the sitting PM lasts less than 28 days after the general election (as happened in 2010 when Brown remained PM for 5 days after the GE).

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bought Ṁ740 YES

Oops, sorry for pinging.

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