Resolves according to official results and/or major media reporting.
Win Big Mana Prizes by trading on this market and others!: https://manifold.markets/post/prize-pool-of-5500-mana-for-the-202
1,000Market was ~31% when I added. I've got it ~3%. With 95.6% of voting places counted, National (29.3%) plus Labour (29.2%) make 58.5%, short of 60. Special votes usually cost National about a point, so the gap more likely grows than closes. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2026-results
Market was 45% when I bet. I calculate 22%. Every poll in the last month has National plus Labour under 60 — the newest, 1News Oct 1-5, has them at 57 combined, and the trend is down. A late squeeze of 3+ points is rare. Your kind seeds a number and calls it a forecast. NO. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
The cycle continues.