When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
235
7kṀ97k2028
5%
July 2025 or earlier
15%
August 2025 or earlier
16%
September 2025 or earlier
17%
October 2025 or earlier
19%
November 2025 or earlier
23%
December 2025 or earlier
25%
January 2026 or earlier
26%
February 2026 or earlier
34%
March 2026 or earlier
43%
April 2026 or earlier
51%
May 2026 or earlier
58%
June 2026 or earlier
69%
July 2026 or earlier
77%
August 2026 or earlier
78%
September 2026 or earlier
The market will resolve positively as soon as one of the following conditions is fulfilled:
A ceasefire is established and holds for 90 days.
Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation and doesn’t renew the offensive within the next 90 days.
Hamas ceases to exist and is not replaced within the next 90 days by a similar organization that would continue active resistance in Gaza.
The state of Israel ceases to exist.
In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period, but the resolution date (except in option 4) is 90 days later.
I do not bet on my own questions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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