See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/16/2025-06591/notice-of-request-for-public-comments-on-section-232-national-security-investigation-of-imports-of and <https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-release-result-probe-into-chip-imports-two-weeks-2025-07-27/>. If the tariffs affect [edit: a portion of] the supply I will resolve this up to my best judgment, but probably looking at my estimate of whether 80%+ of high-end chips are hit.
Update 2025-08-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution criterion: The market will resolve based on whether 80% of high-end chips are affected by the tariffs.
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@LarsOsborne not the author but I'd think it is based on this criteria
probably looking at my estimate of whether 80%+ of high-end chips are hit.
> he plans to impose 100 percent tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of imported semiconductors used in consumer electronics and other products, but indicated he would not charge companies that commit to making chips in the U.S.
> However, it was not entirely clear if he meant he would exclude chips that those companies import from abroad, or just observing that chips made domestically will not face tariffs.
> “If you have made a commitment to build or are in the process of building, as many are, there is no tariff. If for some reason you say you are building and you don’t build, we go back and add it up, it accumulates, and we will charge you at a later date. You have to pay,” Trump said.
No detail yet, but https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html
@Bayesian but it's it gonna last for a month? Only thing I know is that this uncertainty is poison for businesses