Trump has threatened the UK, Denmark and other EU countries with tariffs of 10% starting Feb 1st until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland".
But as we all know, TACO.
So this market is specifically on the tariffs coming into effect for the UK specifically, at the stated rate and on the stated date. I think I’ve covered all possible options with this multi-choice market but I’ll not bet just in case creative interpretation is needed. Resolution will be based on whatever is in place at the end if the 1st Feb, UK-time. A new tariff is anything not in place at market creation on Jan 17th.
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "17th January baseline" refers to the tariff status on the day this market was announced (January 17th). The resolution will compare the tariff situation at the end of February 1st (UK time) against what tariffs were already in place on January 17th, to avoid ambiguity about pre-existing tariffs.
1,000@Waterfalls for the sake of clarity I’m comparing the end result with the day this was announced. Right now there are some tariffs on the UK and so this is to avoid resolution lawyers saying that there’s already a tariff and so some answers might be YES/NO against what sense dictates.