Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows any party polling at greater than or equal to 30%, for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool. Excepting any obvious data / charting errors on Politico's end. All 14 days must fall within 2025 I.e. the streak cannot start on Dec 31st 2025.
If for any reason Politico's Poll of Polls ceases to function then the backup metric is Wikipedia's UK Polling chart.
Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * To account for potential delays and retroactive updates in Politico's Poll of Polls data:
If a 14-day streak of a party polling at >=30% appears to have completed, the market will not be resolved YES immediately.
A two-week waiting period will be implemented after the apparent end date of such a streak to allow Politico's data to settle.
The market will resolve YES only if the original 14-day streak (showing the party at >=30% for the qualifying period) remains valid in Politico's data after this two-week waiting period.
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@traders Politico have updated, Reform now show as having a 30% average starting on May 9th!
As there is clearly a delay to Politico loading polls in which can push a result back into the past, I will not resolve YES immediately on the 23rd, assuming that Reform remain >=30%. Instead, I will wait two weeks (i.e. until the 6th of June) to allow for any further updates to settle. If the two weeks at >=30% remains true two weeks beyond the date that has occurred, then I will resolve YES.
I have pulled forward the close date to the 6th, mostly as a reminder to myself to check then. If Reform drop again before then, I'll push the close date back to the end of December.