For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other. If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place. A split resolution is a last resort.
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@AAR I’m going to say no. The key part is a non-Reform party gaining a 5% lead over the rest of the pack. If Reform ended up in second place without that happening it implies a scenario where all four parties are at or around 20% and so we’re still in this tied situation. At that point I might have to N/A.
@Noit actually I’ve changed my mind. If anything like that happens, where the question no longer makes sense, I’ll resolve Other.
@Noit I think I agree your second judgment is good
The other way it could happen is if Reform falls very precipitously to 22% and, say, Labour rise rapidly to 30% (with greens and Tories at 17% or below). If the change is rapid enough, there's never 14 days when Labour are second
Would that scenario resolve Reform? (Or other if not added)
@Fion I've removed reference to Reform as first place party and added them as an option. The key thing here is about decisive-second-place-ness. I think this solves all the weird edge cases? Basically any party has to be below the leading party and 5% above the rest of the pack for 14 days straight. If that doesn't occur then it'll resolve Other.
@Noit and what are the time frames on a tie? If we have a 4-way tie for 14 days is that Other? Or do we wait for market close? Or the election?
(Not saying it's likely that a tie will last that long, but it could happen for a while.)
Oh god I just thought of another thing. What if two parties are very close in the lead such that it's hard to say which is first and second?
@Fion market continues until market close. If there's a 4-way-tie then there's no clear second place and as such no resolution in any direction. If the market close was reached then it'd be other.
If it's hard to tell which party is in second but both are a clear 5% above the others I guess I'd have to resolve 50% each, or wait to see how it split? Gut feeling is that kind of thing shouldn't last long so in that event I think I'd keep the market open until either one party took a clear lead (even if it's only a percent or two) and second place was clearly settled. I think the general position will be that if there's any doubt, I'd prefer to keep the market open until a consensus emerges, with a split resolution being a last resort.