MANIFOLD
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
34
Ṁ500Ṁ3k
Mar 31
47%
Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)
6%
Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release
31%
Is wearable
5%
On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026
51%
Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release
57%
Will have a vibration motor for notifications
36%
Will come in >= 3 colors on launch
71%
US retail price <= $500 on launch
51%
Has notification LEDs
84%
Has a camera
39%
Has any screen
52%
Can play music from Spotify
30%
Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription
97%
Requires a network connection
24%
US retail price <= $300 on launch
94%
Has a microphone
97%
Will have a battery
59%
Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)
34%
Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device. What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release. If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.

  • Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:

    • Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.

  • Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date will be extended until the device is released or confirmed as cancelled. If the project is cancelled, the market will resolve N/A.

Market context
Technology
AI
OpenAI
AI Impacts
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bought Ṁ100 NO

What happens at market close? Will it be extended if the device has not yet been released?

@LietKynes yeah, close date will be pushed back until the device is released or confirmed as cancelled in which case it will resolve N/A.

@Noit thanks!

@NivlacM this is slightly vague. It'll definitely require internet connection for some AI features but it's likely at least something will work locally, like if it's earbuds/speakers they'll probably be able to play music offline.

@ProjectVictory main functionality. My phone requires a network connection. My Kindle does not

@NivlacM you can make calls without network connection. Isn't that the "main functionality" of the phone?

@ProjectVictory cellular network is a network in my mind

@NivlacM it's not the Internet sure but it's still a network

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Noit do earbuds count as worn on head?

@256 yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

Great market!

bought Ṁ100 NO

https://www.theverge.com/news/672357/openai-ai-device-sam-altman-jony-ive

bought Ṁ33 YES

relevant market regarding wearability of device:

https://manifold.markets/ThomasPoltoranos/first-openai-io-hardware-product-we?r=VGhvbWFzUG9sdG9yYW5vcw

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ThomasPoltoranos the verge link you posted seemed to suggest it won't have a screen

bought Ṁ10 NO

likely of interest
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by

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