Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop? | Manifold

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

27

Ṁ1kṀ2k

2027

61%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.

Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028.

Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further. Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".

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What are you defining as a flop? If it sells well but the device is crap is it a flop? Alternatively if it doesn’t sell well but the device is great is it a flop?

@RKCarn I am intentionally not defining a flop. I'll know it when I see it... (If I had a tighter operationalization for this question, I would have just used that.)

bought Ṁ5 NO

Are the following flops to you?

Apple vision pro

Meta's rayban smart glasses

Oculus

@SimoneRomeo Probably not...

bought Ṁ50 YES

has an AI hardware ever not flopped?

@jim the real question is what the base rate is for jony ive's products flopping

reposted

Could these guys ever mess up?

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What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?

First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?

When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀

Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?

Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?

Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?

Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?

What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit?

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

Related questions

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?

First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?

When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀

Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?

Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?

Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?

Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?

What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit?

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

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