Why would there be a general election? Labour would lose a lot of seats. I don't see what the point would be.

@Jack1 the deep Labour lore is that Brown didn’t take the country to the polls during his honeymoon period after taking over from Blair, and that’s why they lost in 2010. Anyone who takes over from Starmer is going to be under some pressure to go to the polls early.

@Noit Ok, But I doubt there will be a labour honeymoon that would result in more seats for labour. I'm not very knowledgeable on uk politics, but I think worldwide the only point of an early election is if you are polling well and can increase seats.

@Jack1 there’s two strong arguments in favour. One, if you’re pushing a significant change in direction, you spend years being told you have no mandate which burns popularity.

Two, losing some of a massive majority is a worthwhile trade off if it secures you extra time on your term. In 2027 we’ll be a max of two years away from an election anyway.

You’ll note I’m not betting up the YES Election odds but it’s absolutely something that’s possible with is why I put the market up.