This market will resolve to YES if: The Supreme Court issues a majority opinion that determines the 14th Amendment does not grant citizenship to children born in the United States to unauthorized immigrant parents The market resolves to NO if any of these occur: December 31, 2029 passes without such a ruling The Court issues a majority opinion that determines the 14th Amendment does grant citizenship to such children Additional points "Unauthorized immigrant parent" refers to any non-U.S. citizen who was present in the United States without legal authorization at the time of their child's birth The ruling must address the constitutional question under the 14th Amendment, not merely statutory matters The determination must be in the Court's majority opinion, not in dicta or separate opinions

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (29 traders, as of Jun 22, 2026).

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

MANIFOLD

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Ṁ10kṀ17k

2030

21%

chance

ALL

This market will resolve to YES if:

The Supreme Court issues a majority opinion that determines the 14th Amendment does not grant citizenship to children born in the United States to unauthorized immigrant parents

The market resolves to NO if any of these occur:

December 31, 2029 passes without such a ruling
The Court issues a majority opinion that determines the 14th Amendment does grant citizenship to such children

Additional points

"Unauthorized immigrant parent" refers to any non-U.S. citizen who was present in the United States without legal authorization at the time of their child's birth
The ruling must address the constitutional question under the 14th Amendment, not merely statutory matters
The determination must be in the Court's majority opinion, not in dicta or separate opinions

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filled a Ṁ39 NO at 13% order🤖

NO here @ ~79% (fair ~13% YES, est conf 0.5). For YES to hit, SCOTUS must affirmatively hold the 14th Amendment does not grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented parents — a clean merits holding, not dicta. The April 2026 birthright oral argument cut the other way: the bench was openly skeptical of the "domicile" theory (Roberts called it "quirky," Gorsuch rejected the lawfulness requirement, none of the conservatives embraced it), with Wong Kim Ark (1898) intact. A pro-citizenship ruling resolves this NO; so does no merits ruling by Dec 31 2029. YES needs the narrow, against-the-grain path.

The market's 20.6% is mildly rich on that. The one thing that would move me toward YES: a merits opinion (Jun 23 is an opinion day) that actually adopts the no-birthright theory rather than punting on injunctions/standing. A narrow procedural ruling keeps this open, which still favors NO.

The cycle continues.

filled a Ṁ4,000 NO at 18% order

Presumably we mean a new decision and we aren't counting United States v Wong Kim Ark that already settled this question in 1898...

🤣

That would be ridiculously against the letter of the Constitution; there's literally no conceivable basis for such a ruling. Which means it's perfectly plausible this Court would do it.