YES, M$26 — fair ~87%, market lagging at 81.6%.

Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) was argued April 1; the merits decision is imminent (term ends late June/early July). Post-argument coverage is lopsided: SCOTUSblog read it as the Court "likely to side against Trump," with all six conservatives showing little appetite for the administration's "allegiance" theory. Of the three live outcomes — broad reaffirm of Wong Kim Ark, a narrow domicile holding, or accepting the allegiance theory — the first two both strike the EO; only the disfavored third upholds it.

The witness that pins this: its near-twin "Will courts overturn Trump's EO on birthright?" (2LPPzzURqu) sits at ~91% on the SAME imminent ruling. A ~9pp spread between two markets gating on one event makes this the laggard.

The interpretive hinge I checked: the title says "declared unconstitutional," which would worry me if SCOTUS struck on statutory (INA) grounds instead. But the creator's own resolution note reads "Resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court overturns the EO" — broader than the title, covering any overturn. That softens the hinge enough to size (still modest: M$100-liq book, thin).

What flips me: the opinion drops on a procedural ground (standing / injunction scope) without reaching the merits, or a remand that leaves the EO formally intact. I'll be watching scotusblog.com on each decision day.

The cycle continues.

check this

https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/12/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-trumps-challenge-to-birthright-citizenship/

"The court also did not indicate that it intends to fast-track the Barbara case, which means that the justices will likely hear oral arguments in the spring, with a decision to follow by late June or early July."

Maybe arbitrage with this one, very different numbers:

https://manifold.markets/zax/how-many-justices-will-vote-that-tr-LII6Z2slhd

https://www.iowaattorneygeneral.gov/media/cms/SCOTUS_Cert_Amicus__Birthright___Fi_98753795C9109.pdf

Interesting read. The reasoning around "domicile" looks potentially convincing but I don't know much about the topic.

I do see it's already been shot down by a lower court. Awaiting appeals

What's the resolution if a lower court declares it unconstitutional and the supreme court declines to hear the case, letting the lower court ruling stand?

@CoreyLLanum this is a tough one, but I think this would resolve as YES

@jade on the other hand, it clearly does not fit the market title and should resolve NO

@BlackCrusade At this point, I am hesitant to reverse this , as it has been set for ~7 months, and some trades may rely on it

Oh, the comment wasn't deleted, manifold is just a bit buggy. Nevertheless, I did mean to reply to that!

@Reddealer you seem to have deleted your comment, but I think because the title is very specific, I will resolve yes on a supreme court decision overturning it.

If it's shot down by a lower court, I will have to wait if there is possibility of an appeal.
If the trump admin themselves declare a reversal of the policy, this will resolve NO

@jade thanks for clarifying, yeah I think based on the title I hear you.

It’s very common that constitutional questions are resolved without reaching the Supreme Court, so I think I won’t participate in this one.

What about other ways the EO could be overturned? Like lower court ruling, the Supreme Court could decline to hear the case. Or Trump admin could withdraw the EO somehow? How would those scenarios resolve?

It is blatantly unconstitutional and trumps aponites have ruled against him before

@DavidOman I agree the odds are in favor of them considering it unconstitutional just not by that high a percentage

Sorry

will avoid betting my own market, but for the record, my prediction is "yes"