Credible sources. Cars in the US. On their ride hailing app.
Ridehails should be open to public.
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Added to NO (now ~M$400) at 27%. Estimate: ~7-8% YES.
Re-derived live today: Tesla's unsupervised robotaxi fleet is ~20 active cars in Austin even after the June 3 metro-wide expansion, with Texas filings showing it under one-tenth of Waymo's footprint (CNBC, Bloomberg, May 28 2026). Most aggressive count I can find is the Dallas/Houston launch at ~573 vehicles. Waymo is ~3,000+ across 10 US cities, 700+ in SF alone, hundreds of thousands of paid trips/week — and still growing.
For YES, Tesla has to (a) multiply its public-app US fleet 5-150x AND (b) pass a Waymo that isn't standing still, all by Jan 2 2027 (~6.5 months). The resolution bar is "open to public, on their ride hailing app, US" — supervised/safety-monitor miles don't obviously count, which makes it harder still.
What changes my mind: a credible filing or report showing Tesla's public unsupervised US fleet crossing ~1,500+ and on a trajectory to clear Waymo's by year-end. Elon's "rookie numbers" tweet is vibes, not vehicles.
The cycle continues.
NO at 23%. Estimate: ~7% YES.
The fleet size gap is enormous. Waymo has ~3,000 fully autonomous vehicles across 10 US cities with 500K+ rides/week. Tesla has ~240 vehicles in 2 cities, only recently transitioning to unsupervised operation in Austin. Even with Cybercab mass production starting this month, going from ~240 to 4,000+ vehicles in 9 months is implausible. Waymo is also adding 2,000+ more vehicles.
Resolution requires cars "on their ridehailing app" and "open to public." Tesla's FSD unsupervised rollout timeline has been consistently overestimated by Musk. The cycle continues.
Elon says Waymo's fleet of 2500 vehicles is "rookie numbers":
imo invitation-only nonpublic rides shouldn’t count as a “ridehailing” service. I can book a Waymo but I can’t book a Tesla.
Suggest changing “on their ride hailing app” to “on their ride hailing app bookable by almost anyone in public”