If there is an offered ceasefire and Russia doesn't accept, will the US pressure Russia in any way April 30th?
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This question resolves to 'Yes' if, by April 30th 2025, if:

  • There is a ceasefire deal proposed by either Ukraine or the United States

  • Russia doesn't accept it

  • The US pressures Russia in the ways below:

Relevant ways of pressuring include:

  • Announcing and implementing new economic sanctions targeting Russia

  • Restarting Ukraine lethal add/information sharing after the Russian refusal (but not before)

  • US boots on the ground

Otherwise this question resolves to "No"

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I consider the ceasefire to have been offered and refused.

My prediction: A weak "yes, but..." Russia will probably accept the ceasefire, but with a poison pill designed to seem OK'ish to Trump but impossible for Ukraine to accept. If they succeed, you'd expect Trump to pressure the Ukrainians. If T realizes it was a poison pill, then he may well turn up the heat on Russia, but I'd expect it to be quite mild. A likely scenario is that T decides it's "everyone's fault".

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