If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
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Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality. This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above. Or if the year ends without ceasefire This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing. If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes". Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market Mar 8, 1:58pm: It will also resolve N/A if Ukraine is made to accept other significant conditions (installing a puppet leader, giving up territory outside of the Donbas). But minor conditions (respecting minority rights for Russian speakers) don't trigger a N/A, Unsure about which conditions count as major? feel free to comment!
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2y

only ceasefire, for Putin, any peace deal is considered a tactical truth. There is only one situation Russia will not invade its neighbors in future 30 years: Russia secondly collapses and remains struggling in a civil war

2y

with loans it now becomes sort of viable to bet on such markets

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