Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
*A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
UTC is used
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Would unloading something on the Moon count as a deployment?
Does such an object have to be contractually specified to count? I am wondering if SpaceX send an Optimus with HLS demo to practice unloading a starship, does that count or only if contractually specified or some other requirement for it to count?
@ChristopherRandles unloading on the moon would not count as per:
"A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship..."
(And also as per the market title)
Re whether it has to be contractually specified:
"A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX"
Does that answer your questions?
@Nat
Thanks, so just to check and clarify, I take it that
1. A starlink satellite paid for by NASA and configured to have cameras and lights to film Artemis III docking(s) deployed to orbit as part of the Artemis III mission would count.
2. Starshield sats (regardless of whether adjusted to same form factor as v3 starlink satellites) paid for by some US government department would also count. Entity includes governments in my accounting based language.
i.e. There is no requirement for it to be deployed by a different mechanism than a Pez dispenser. So a rideshare mission that launches both starlink satellites and some other satellite(s) like starshield or starfall via Pez dispenser could count even if satellite is SpaceX designed (and maybe even owned by SpaceX?) as long as launch and deployment to orbit is paid for an entity other than SpaceX?
@Nat I think you're right that it's practically certain to be NO, but resolving it early based on FAA filings rather than a SpaceX announcment feels like a (small) step too far.
Still, if mods can later undo a resolution (if it were needed), I bet most participants are happy to get their mana back sooner.
I don't mind, just feels a bit bold.
@DanHomerick oh, nevermind. This is for commercial payload, not test flight date.
Ignore me. That one already has many nines of certainly. Good call.
@DanHomerick I basically agree. I think I'd actually mildly object if the old loan system was in place. As is, I like this early resolve approach.
Related Metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9611/date-of-a-customer-payload-on-starship/