Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Question

https://aimoprize.com/

XTX Markets is launching a new $10mn challenge fund, the Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize (AI-MO Prize). The fund intends to spur the development of AI models that can reason mathematically, leading to the creation of a publicly-shared AI model capable of winning a gold medal in the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).

The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO.

Will the grand prize be awarded before 2030?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (12 traders, as of Sep 22, 2026).

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