How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
Basic
6
Ṁ1512027
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
40% chance
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?
71% chance
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
45% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
73% chance
What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?
80% chance
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
How will the best AI score on the 2024 Putnam Exam? (Raw score)
48% chance
What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?
46% chance
What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?
64% chance