Will average IQ in developed countries drop 15 points or more by EOY 2098?
Basic
5
Ṁ3542099
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Average" here will be median—my understanding is this is what's generally meant when people refer to "the average IQ of [insert country]."
"Developed country" refers to the 41 countries currently considered to be advanced economies by the IMF. This is basically US & Canada, Europe, Japan & South Korea, Australia, plus a bunch of smaller countries.
I won't bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
45% chance
Will average IQ drop by 15 points in 75 years the US?
9% chance
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100" market decline to 10% by the end of 2024?
52% chance
Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?
45% chance
By the end of 2050, it will not be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations
68% chance
Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023?
69% chance
By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?
22% chance
Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?
52% chance
Will live expectancy in the US drop below 70 years for men by 2025?
18% chance
Will US test scores reach new highs by 2050?
61% chance