Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?
Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?
15
1kṀ404
2029
70%
chance

Both federal and local governments would count.

Public spaces could be, e.g., public hospitals, public transport, or government buildings.

Will resolve based on credible news reports.

Let me know if there are more clarifications I forgot and should add.

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2y

This only resolves to NO if a huge number of governmental bodies keep doing an irrational thing for the next 7 years.

2y

@lu I see your point but surely there are examples of many governments having done an irrational thing for decades? E.g. war on drugs maybe? Having spent very little money on pandemic prevention so far even though Covid happened?

predictedYES 2y

@MaxG Sure, I'd not bet on any one government or year here. The market is about all governments not implementing this though, which is way more unlikely (with roughly p_all = 1 - (1 - p_one)**N, up to correlations), with the same argument for every single one of the 7 years. In your example, Portugal not staying in line with the war on drugs would have resolved a similar market to YES.

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