
When will the first murder of a civilian happen in a US city by a robot or AI device where an operator is not nearby
15
Ṁ1kṀ3kJan 1
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
97%
In or after 2025
56%
In or after 2030
45%
In or after 2040
23%
In or after 2050
This will resolve YES if the killing is deemed intentional to attack a specific person by someone not involved in law enforcement. Random attacks, accidents or bombs do not count. The creator, operator or programmer does not need to be found or known to resolve YES. Includes any machine, robot or drone. The device can be remotely controlled but the operator can not be within visual line of sight of the attack.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Will someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
25% chance
If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event
87% chance
A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030
51% chance
When will humans intentionally destroy an AI data center first?
10/17/30
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
26% chance
When will an AI-assisted bio-attack first result in at least 1,000,000 deaths?
When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?
2033
Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?
60% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO
[edit: oh whoops I failed at readig the options correctly]
People are also trading
Related questions
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Will someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
25% chance
If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event
87% chance
A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030
51% chance
When will humans intentionally destroy an AI data center first?
10/17/30
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
26% chance
When will an AI-assisted bio-attack first result in at least 1,000,000 deaths?
When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?
2033
Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?
60% chance