I think the actual probability here should be under 5%, probably under 1%, due to the May deadline. This market is artificially high because the title doesn't make the "before the end of May" provision clear.

The Senate isn't even on track to have a floor vote in May, let alone reconcile any differences with the House bill, pass the revised versions, and get it to Trump's desk. [Edit: also there's a Senate recess May 23-31, which gives them even less time to act.]

The current Farm Bill doesn't expire until September 30, so there's no reason for them to have a sense of urgency to get this through in May.

(None of this has any bearing on how likely the Save Our Bacon provision will go into law in the final bill, I don't have any sense of how likely that is right now.)

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/05/senate-targeting-late-may-early-june-for-farm-bill-markup/

Important!!!!

Why is this so different?

@Conflux Oh maybe it's that this market is only about the next month

Does "pass" mean pass into law, or are you referring just to the vote on the House farm bill? I am assuming the later - I don't think this is enough time for it to become law.

@DylanRichardson not sure if you saw but the description was updated, which I think answers your question.

@MatthewAdelstein is this interpretation confirmed? I am hesitant to respond accordingly because the other market on this massively changed the resolution date after the fact.

@DylanRichardson Yeah

I just googled and it looks like the House bill already passed today, with SOB. They are really sending mixed signals on this!

Related: https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-farm-bill-with-save-our-ba

The title of this market should probably be phrased as a yes/no question rather than "how likely." e.g. "Will the Save Our Bacon Act pass before the end of May 2026?"

@AlexSemendinger @MatthewAdelstein seconded. You should change the title.

Well this looks kind of bad.