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MANIFOLD
Will any Smithsonian museum be closed before EOY 2026?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ406
Dec 31
69%
chance
50

Background

On March 27th, 2025, Donald Trump issued the executive order "Restoring truth and sanity to American history," which directs the Smithsonian institute's board of regents to "remove improper ideology" from its museums and research centers.

The Smithsonian's board structure is made up of the Vice President, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, 3 senators (picked by the President pro tempore of the Senate), 3 House representatives (picked by the Speaker of the House), and 9 citizens (picked through joint resolution). The EO also directs Vance to seek to appoint new people to the Board of Regents to advance the EO.

The Smithsonian has many museums, including the African Art Museum, the African-American History and Culture museum, the Asian Art Museums, and the National Postal Museum (The National Gallery is not a Smithsonian Institution museum).

Resolution Criteria

Will the Smithsonian close down any of its museums by EOY 2026? Resolves YES if there is reporting that any Smithsonian museum has been permanently closed (or closed for an indeterminate period of time, excluding planned or regular closures, such as renovations). An announcement is enough to resolve this YES, even if there are later attempts to block it with court orders.

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Every Smithsonian museum closed on Oct 11-12, 2025 "for the remainder of the shutdown," with no reopening date until the 43-day shutdown ended. They reopened Nov 14-17. That is a closure for an indeterminate period, and it was not planned or regular like a renovation, so it meets the criteria. It happened after this market opened (March 28, 2025).

Art Newspaper: https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2025/10/13/smithsonian-institution-museums-close-us-government-shutdown

NHPR: https://www.nhpr.org/2025-10-11/smithsonian-museums-and-national-zoo-set-to-close-as-shutdown-takes-its-toll

Washington Times: https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/oct/11/smithsonian-shutter-sunday-government-shutdown-continues/

ABC7: https://abc7news.com/post/smithsonian-museums-national-zoo-closed-amid-government-shutdown/17998703/

Reopening, Fox 5 DC: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/smithsonian-reopen-several-museums-friday-government-reopens