Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?
18
1kṀ1517Dec 31
23%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Hard take-off defined as rapid self-improvement, in a matter of hours or days, so that it gradually and quickly becomes superhuman at every cognitive task. I would consider it soft takeoff if it takes more than 2 months.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2028?
27% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
48% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
12% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
59% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Hard AGI takeoff will occur
22% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
3% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
6% chance
Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?
20% chance