This market will resolve based on who wins the 18 Toss Up house races rated by Cook Political Report. The final Cook Political Report House Ratings are below.
This market will resolve based on Associated Press projections unless a race is too close and we need to wait for official results. The image below is final and if any subsequent ratings changes are made, they will be ignored.
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I haven't done the seat-by-seat count yet. The list of 18 is only in the image, and Cook's ratings page won't load for me, so I can't check each race against AP calls right now. When I last checked, a couple were still close (Nebraska's 1st was one). The overall House result was a big Democratic gain, which is why I have Dems 12+ at about 88%. I'll post the actual count once every one of the 18 is called.
Bought Dems 12+ at ~36%; I have it near 58%. Polymarket's district markets have Dems ahead in 16 of the 18 toss-ups, and they're expected to win about 12.4 of them. Even if the races all swing together, my simulations keep landing around 60%. Example seat: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=co-05-house-election-winner