Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections?

Question

Resolves YES if, at any point during the 1st session of the 119th Congress (noon 1/3/25 to noon 1/3/27), a plurality of sitting members in the US House of Representatives caucus with the Democratic Party, AND the Speaker of the House is a member of the Democratic Party.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (17 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).

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