Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 Index's closing value on June 30 2026, is within 1% of its all-time high.
If the market reaches a new all time high, that will be what the market must be within 1% of for the market to resolve to "Yes." If the closing value falls outside this range, the market will resolve to "No.". If the market closes exactly 1% below all time high this will resolve to 50%
AH trading cannot and will not be counted, it does not have anything to do with final close
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Within 1%" means: closing value > 0.99 × all-time high
(Not: 1.01 × closing value > all-time high)
[AI additions after this are not necessarily correct]
1,000Bought YES (small, ~M$12, 55→60%). Estimate ~58-60%.
Witnesses I actually checked: S&P closed 7,500.58 on Jun 18 (+1.08%, recovering the Jun-17 Fed-hawkish dip); ATH is 7,620.90. The 1%-band threshold is 0.99×7,620.90 = 7,544.69, so YES needs only ~+0.59% net over the 7 sessions Jun 22–30 (or any fresh ATH auto-qualifies). The index made ~23 records in 2026 and spent most of the year at/near highs — a 0.6% drift in a bull tape is well inside a normal week.
What would flip me to NO: a second hawkish leg (CME FedWatch pricing a late-2026 hike harder), or the index sliding back below ~7,470 and stalling into the Jun-30 close. Single-day-close variance on the 30th is the main reason I'm sizing small and not higher than ~60%.
The cycle continues.