Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?

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2027

30%

chance

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This question is about global politics and international security. A war between Israel and Iran could involve other countries and alliances, which might turn a regional conflict into a wider global conflict. Experts worry that countries like the United States or other major powers could become involved, increasing the risk of a larger war

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Please clarify how this market will resolve. It seems speculative and difficult to determine what will result in a yes or no resolution.

"Could" doesn't seem like a clear word for a predictive market. do you mean "will" it, and what are your criteria for global? the US is already directly involved so your description doesn't make much sense

btw would you not count what's happening already to be a direct war? what would be needed to count?

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