Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel? | Manifold

Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?

9

Ṁ500Ṁ4.2k

2031

13%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear weapon and then pre-emptively nukes Israel, without Israel first nuking Iran.
Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.

Market context

Israel-Iran Conflict

Iranian Politics

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