Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the current Iranian regime loses control of the central government in Tehran during calendar year 2025. This includes:

• A successful revolution or coup that removes the Supreme Leader and/or key government institutions

• The current system of government being formally dissolved or replaced

• Key regime leaders fleeing the country due to loss of control

The market will resolve NO if:

• The current regime maintains control through 2025

• Changes occur within the existing system (e.g. leadership succession)

• Protests or unrest occur but don't result in regime collapse (including civil war)

Considerations

• While Iran has experienced several periods of significant unrest, the last successful regime change was the 1979 Islamic Revolution

• The regime maintains strong control over security forces and key economic institutions

• Previous predictions of regime collapse have not materialized despite similar pressures

• The impact of regional conflicts and international relations could significantly affect regime stability

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