MANIFOLD
Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
11
Ṁ170Ṁ508
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO

Will be resolved if more than 1000 cases of a previously unknown pathogen are recorded occur on every continent, excluding Antarctica.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ43
2Ṁ33
3Ṁ13
4Ṁ11
5Ṁ11
Sort by:

Do variants of existing pathogens count? How different does it have to be?

@ahalekelly I think a good guideline is at least as novel as the COVID-19 coronavirus was when it emerged in 2020.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy