
Will "Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Sch..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ4Feb 1
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Small Models Can Introspect, Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
23% chance
Will "On Goal-Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "Do models say what they learn?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "My model of what is going on with LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Model Organisms for Emergent Misalignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "A Case for Model Persona Research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Von Neumann's Fallacy and You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance