Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
2
Ṁ1kṀ62027
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physical Tasks: A Manufacturing Case Study is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will "2025 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "2024 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "AI 2027: Responses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "AI in 2025: gestalt" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Failed Strategy of Artificial Intelligenc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
10% chance
Will "Futarchy's fundamental flaw" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "OpenAI #10: Reflections" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
29% chance