Will I believe in 1 year that DeepSeek R1 was substantially trained via distillation of a US model?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ148Jan 1
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date
V4 (DeepSeek) release date
Will Deepseek V4 outperform OpenAI and Anthropic models at coding?
19% chance
Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?
1% chance
will deepseek-v4 destroy all other models?
16% chance
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
7% chance
Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?
25% chance
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
28% chance
Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027?
20% chance
When will Deepseek R2 be released?
6/7/26