Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028?
9
170Ṁ93
2028
66%
chance

Resolves YES if there is credible evidence that a state or non-state actor has succeeded in illicitly gaining access to the weights of a frontier model. The evidence doesn't have to be 100% conclusive, but e.g. a rumor wouldn't count.

Resolves NO if there is no credible evidence that anyone has succeeded at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028.

For the purposes of this question, a frontier model is a state-of-the-art foundation model.

Not sufficient to resolve YES::

  • If model weights are leaked by a disgruntled employee, but there is no reason to suspect coordinated action by any group.

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