Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
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Ṁ5262026
20%
chance
1D
1W
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ALL
Resolves YES if there is credible evidence (by OpenAI or others) that an actor external to OpenAI has succeeded in illicitly gaining access to GPT-4 weights. The evidence doesn't have to be 100% conclusive, but e.g. a rumor wouldn't count.
Resolves NO if there is no evidence that anyone has succeeded at stealing GPT-4 weights by the end of 2026.
Not sufficient to resolve YES::
If model weights are leaked by a disgruntled employee, but there is no reason to suspect coordinated action by any group.
Someone steals weights of a non-GPT-4 frontier model, or the weights of GPT-5
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