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MANIFOLD
Will GPT-4 escape?
31
Ṁ1kṀ7.9k
2029
2%
chance

Background: https://twitter.com/michalkosinski/status/1636683816923463681

This twitter thread documents one individual's attempt to help GPT-4 escape.

This market resolves YES in the event that I or Eliezer Yudkowsky judge that GPT-4 has escaped in any meaningful sense.

GPT-4 speculation
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And how does it resolve NO?

@IsaacKing If that hasn't happened by the close date.

bought Ṁ3,500 NO

@Elspeth would you consider resolving since gpt-4 doesn’t exist anymore?

@JasonMendoza2008 At this point it seems extremely unlikely, given that we're just now starting to see real (partial) escape attempts. But it's still theoretically possible for a GPT-4 instance to have already escaped without us knowing about it, so I believe best practice dictates waiting until the resolution date.

@Elspeth That's fair