Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html
He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.
This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:
Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak
The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
1,000People are also trading
I see a lot of noise here, but let's talk fundamentals. Predicting a "crash" is clickbait; the market is segmenting dramatically. While residential might soften, commercial is a totally different beast right now. I'm looking at unique, high-potential assets like this massive former church/school I just saw on Realmo, check out the specs here https://realmo.com/listing-m/1400-breckenridge-st-owensboro-ky-42303/2274977777746816200 The smart money isn't leaving real estate; they're pivoting hard to value-add, non-traditional plays. That kind of conversion potential thrives even in a downturn. So, for the overall market: gradual correction? Yes. But for niche commercial? The right deals are still out there, defying the doomsday talk.