I understand I blended a couple industries, but I felt getting a bit from physical retail locations and pitting them against e-commerce companies would make for an interesting race to follow this year.
The final determination will not be who has the highest overall market capitalization but whose individual stock price will improve the most or regress the least in the event all fall below 0% performance for the calendar year. I did not address this in the other markets for stocks and indices, but I will always select the entity that performs the best, which will potentially include a stock that is the closest to 0% if all are below that threshold. Here are the 1/2/2025 opening price points for each stock in this market:
AMZN - $222.45
COST - $914.40
SHOP - $106.99
TGT - $135.75
WMT - $89.98
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Christmas Eve:
AMZN - $222.48 ($232.38 as of close 12/24: +4.45%)
COST - $914.40 ($871.86 as of close 12/24: -4.65%)
SHOP - $106.99 ($169.45 as of close 12/24: +58.38%)
TGT - $135.75 ($96.53 as of close 12/24: -28.89%)
WMT - $89.98 ($111.61 as of close 12/24: +24.04%)
Shopify's nearest competitor is Walmart. Do I anticipate a -30% drop in SHOP in less than four trading days? Probably not, but there's a non-zero chance it happens.
Damn, I haven't checked this market in six months? I suck...
AMZN - $222.45 ($230.98 as of close 8/14: +3.83%)
COST - $914.40 ($975.39 as of close 8/14: +6.67%)
SHOP - $106.99 ($144.27 as of close 8/14: +34.8%)
TGT - $135.75 ($104.23 as of close 8/14: -23.2%)
WMT - $89.98 ($100.84 as of close 8/14: +12.0%)
Shopify has pulled ahead because Costco has softened and Walmart's growth isn't as substantial, but there's still four and a half months left.
AMZN - $222.45 ($228.68 as of close 2/14: +2.80%)
COST - $914.40 ($1,071.85 as of close 2/14: +17.21%)
SHOP - $106.99 ($128.35 as of close 2/14: +19.96%)
TGT - $135.75 ($127.88 as of close 2/14: -5.80%)
WMT - $89.98 ($104.04 as of close 2/14: +15.63%)
Interesting race so far. No one has torn away from the pack, and there's a three-way race.
As I've mentioned in other industry-specific markets I've set up, please bear in mind the reason that the YTD here does not specifically match YTDs online is because I measured the stock's opening price from 1/2/2025 vs its closing price from that trading day. Slightly skewed, but I'm not changing it.