These are major companies in the same industry that I want to track during the year. Here are the opening prices from 1/2/2025 for each of these companies:
BA - $178.77
GD - $265.27
LMT - $484.56
NOC - $471.99
RTX - $117.01
Final result will be change in its individual stock price from opening 1/2/2025 to close 12/31/2025, not which company ends with the highest market cap or highest stock price or volume.
Note: I do not generally trade or bet on my own markets, but because I work for one of these organizations, I specifically will not influence this market in any way beyond reporting the changes in stock price.
Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Metric: This market will resolve based on the highest absolute change in stock price from the opening price on 1/2/2025 to the closing price on 12/31/2025, rather than on the highest percentage increase.
Example: If Raytheon gains 19% over the year but Boeing drops 20%, the market will resolve in favor of Boeing due to the larger absolute movement.
Interpretation: Both positive and negative changes are considered based on their absolute value.
Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
This market will resolve based on the highest absolute change in the stock price from the opening price on 1/2/2025 to the closing price on 12/31/2025.
Only markets with the phrase "highest overall change" (like this one and the semiconductor market) use this criterion.
Other markets using terms such as "best year" will resolve based on the highest increase or lowest overall decrease.
Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the highest percentage change (not raw dollar amount change) from the opening price on 1/2/2025 to the closing price on 12/31/2025.
Important: This uses absolute value of percentage change, meaning a stock that loses 40% would "win" over a stock that increases by 38%.
This differs from the creator's other markets worded as "best calendar year performance" which only consider positive increases.
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Christmas Eve:
BA - $178.77 ($218.16 as of close 12/24: +22.03%)
GD - $265.27 ($345.39 as of close 12/24: +30.2%)
LMT - $484.56 ($485.75 as of close 12/24: +0.24%)
NOC - $471.99 ($582.35 as of close 12/24: +23.38%)
RTX - $117.01 ($186.38 as of close 12/24: +59.29%)
Yes, Raytheon has practically run away with this one. Northrop did experience an extremely bearish trading day where it dropped around 14% in April earlier this year. Barring a miracle, this one is practically sewn up.
Update 8/15:
BA - $178.77 ($233.14 as of close 8/14: +30.41%)
GD - $265.27 ($315.88 as of close 8/14: +19.08%)
LMT - $484.56 ($437.44 as of close 8/14: -9.72%)
NOC - $471.99 ($583.77 as of close 8/14: +23.68%)
RTX - $117.01 ($155.07 as of close 8/14: +32.53%)
With global instability comes a flood of activity into the defense market. This is a hell of a swing from my February update, with Raytheon and Boeing both running over 30% YTD and Northrop Grumman at +24%. Even General Dynamics is almost at +20%, and Lockheed is the only one below 0 for the year.
Keep in mind the way this is worded, I do realize now this could also mean the raw total and not just the percentage, so keep that in mind as well as we approach end of year. Something tells me this one is only going to get harder to resolve before then.
@LBeesley I wanted to clarify the resolution terms, as they are currently widely ambiguous. I think most people looking at this and the semiconductor market assume this means % change instead of raw total, and since nobody has contested that assessment on either market, can we get an official clarification? I bought in on the assumption of the latter, but I don't want to be in a case where someone takes a position later and then argues the opposite.
@prismatic you bring up a good point. I’ve structured all of these industry markets with the intent of highest overall percentage change, not raw total.
To clarify further, because of the way I worded this and the semiconductor market, this will take into account loss vs highest overall percentage increase the way the FAANG and other two “best calendar year performance” markets were worded.
It would have been a foregone conclusion in my mind for higher-priced individual stocks to experience higher-dollar fluctuations, which is why I’ve been tracking percentage change vs raw number change.
TL;DR - my markets are tracking overall percentage changes, and this market specifically will be highest absolute value change (I.e. a stock that loses 40% of value would “win” over a stock that increases by 38%.)
As of Valentine's Day 2025:
Boeing - $178.77 ($184.42 as of close 2/14: +3.16%)
General Dynamics - $265.27 ($241.94 as of close 2/14: -8.79%)
Lockheed Martin - $484.56 ($423.19 as of close 2/14: -12.67%)
Northrop Grumman - $471.99 ($438.90 as of close 2/14: -7.01%)
Raytheon - $117.01 ($122.41 as of close 2/14: +4.61%)
Dang. I hadn't been tracking this market so far this year, but it looks like Boeing's recovery from a... turbulent... 2024 might win them this one. Depends on how the three in the middle recover, if they do.
After reviewing the original question as I posted it, I realized the way I worded it can be tricky for resolution. If you're jumping into this market or any where I state "highest overall change," be mindful that this will resolve based on highest absolute value vs highest increase. For example, if Raytheon gains 19% on the year but Boeing drops 20% overall, this market will resolve for Boeing.
I'll go back and see if this is how I worded all of my stock questions.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen yes, if I resolved today. I realized only this one and the semiconductor market has the “highest overall change” wording. The others say some form of “best year.” Those will resolve to the highest increase or lowest overall decrease.