This is Casey's high-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.
Market will resolve to yes if there is at least one U.S. Congressional hearing in 2025 devoted primarily to the political bias of AI chatbots, or particular responses given by an AI chatbot. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
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I thought this one was a yes?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/podcasts/hardfork-roomba-predictions-song.html?showTranscript=1
Well, last year, I said with high confidence, I think that in 2025, the AI culture war is going to begin.
kevin roose
Yes, and you really nailed this one.
casey newton
Thank you. Yeah, I had basically predicted that we were going to see congressional hearings about the way that ChatGPT responds to certain questions and outrage about the way that LLMs respond with politically sensitive topics. And if you go back through the past 12 months, you can see that in March, Representative Jim Jordan subpoenaed 16 tech companies in an effort to discover whether the Biden administration had pressured them to, quote, “censor lawful speech” in their AI products. And then in July, Missouri’s attorney general announced a new pressure campaign against many of those same companies by complaining that when it came to President Trump, chatbot makers weren’t being nice enough to him. It found that it was ranking him low on various lists that the attorney general thought that he should be ranked highly on.
So this was exactly the sort of thing that I thought was going to happen. Honestly, it seemed obvious to me. And it did, in fact, happen.
kevin roose
Yes, and we also saw the woke AI executive order in July, which puts some sort of shiny government gloss on this requirement that chatbots remain ideologically neutral if they’re going to be sold to the government. So yeah, I think this was a good prediction. And you made it with high confidence, and it came true.
It makes cute anime pictures XDDDDD
