Will AI start a war before 2040
Will AI start a war before 2040
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Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.
I will use my own judgement to decide if AI has started a war. If an AI convinces someone to launch a missile or fire a gun and it starts a war this will resolve yes. AI spreading misinformation that starts a war will also resolve yes. If AI is only used as a tool in war and doesn’t start it it will resolve no. If there is no consensus in 2040 the close date will be extended.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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