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MANIFOLD
Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030?
26
Ṁ1.2kṀ4k
2030
18%
Estonia
17%
Lithuania
12%
Latvia
12%
Moldova
11%
Norway (including Svalbard)
9%
Poland
9%
Japan
8%
Denmark (including Greenland)
6%
Finland
5%
Sweden
5%
United States
3%
Germany

An invasion involves forceful entry of ground troops into an occupied and defended territory. Disputes over unoccupied islands, fishing or deep-sea mining rights, etc. don't count. Bombing, drones, saboteurs, assassins don't count. If the Danish were to trade Greenland to Russia to keep the United States from taking it, that doesn't count.

  • Update 2026-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An invasion still counts even if the invading country denies involvement or if the forces lack official insignias or uniforms (such as "little green men").

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How about little green men, that is people without insignia or standardized equipment or uniforms, and without state acknowledgement. Would that count as saboteurs, even if they did partisan type warfare? More precisely, would Ukraine have triggered 2014 or 2022?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Seems to me an invasion is still an invasion even if the invader lies about it.