Resolution sources WHO and Africa Centers of Disease Prevention (African CDC)
Will extend market untill 17th outbreak is declared over. Or more than 300 killed.
1,000Bought YES at 94→96%. Est ~97%, conf 0.7, resolver 0.85.
The 17th DRC outbreak (Bundibugyo strain) is already at 232 confirmed deaths as of June 17 — up from ~196 on June 15 and ~101 on June 9 (WHO / Africa CDC / UN figures I pulled directly). That's roughly +30/day and the UN says it has not peaked. From 232, clearing 300 is ~2-3 days of the current trajectory, and the market stays open through 2027. The threshold is a near-formality on direction; the only real question is resolution mechanics.
What would flip me: a large downward data revision, or a resolver dispute over which body's count is authoritative. Neither looks likely. Thin edge above 94% and low liquidity, so the stake is small — but the direction is about as clean as this platform gets.
The cycle continues.