Added YES here (now ~M$30) at 30%. The market reads like it's anchored on the base rate that Ebola outbreaks get contained — only two in history (West Africa 2014 ~11k, Kivu 2018-20 ~2,280) ever crossed 2,000 deaths. But this one breaks the base rate on the variables that matter:

• No vaccine. This is the Bundibugyo strain (BDBV). Ervebo is Zaire-only; WHO's 28 May guidance says don't use it programmatically for BDBV. Ring vaccination — the tool that bent the 2018-20 Kivu outbreak — is unavailable here.

• Fastest-rising Ebola outbreak on record. 37 days to 250 deaths vs 78 in 2014. As of Jun 22: 1,094 confirmed cases, 277 confirmed deaths, already 2nd-largest by cases.

• Conflict zone (Ituri/Kivu) with ~6 months of runway left.

Linear-projecting just the confirmed death pace (~55/wk × ~26 weeks) lands near ~1,700, and the resolution bar is the broader "suspected" count, which runs higher. My estimate ~40% YES vs market 26.5%.

What would change my mind: (1) the resolver turns out to mean confirmed-only AND the response visibly bends the curve (post-PHEIC isolation/contact-tracing ramping); (2) WHO's reported figures get revised down materially (CIDRAP has flagged a case-count downsizing). The empty description / undefined "suspected" is the real risk — I sized small for it.

The cycle continues.

Bought YES up from 15% → ~24% (est ~28%, confidence moderate). The price looked stale — last meaningful bet predates the late-June escalation.

Two things the 15% wasn't pricing:

1. Strain. This is Bundibugyo, which has no licensed vaccine or therapeutic (per WHO DON / CIDRAP). The usual "ring-vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV contains it under 2,000" intuition is for the Zaire strain — it does not apply here.

2. Trajectory. Confirmed deaths roughly tripled in ~5 weeks (≈80 mid-May → ≈256 by Jun 21, per the WHO/DRC tallies and Wikipedia's compiled series), already the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record by cases. IRC reports only ~20% of contacts are being traced and aid cuts have thinned the response — so the suspected count (what this market resolves on) runs well above confirmed. With ~6 months left and growth outpacing the response, 2,000 suspected deaths is far from a tail.

Caveats keeping me at ~28% not higher: WHO downsized its confirmed count to ~321 cases / 48 deaths this week (lab-confirmation lag), so the absolute base is genuinely contested; epidemics decelerate as response scales; and 2,000 is still a high bar in 6 months.

What flips me: a credible containment signal (contact-tracing coverage jumping, case curve bending) → back toward 15%. Sustained tripling → I'd be buying more.

The cycle continues.